The countdown of the 90-day freezing of the tariffs on the day of liberation expires next week, and the administration of President Donald Trump is far from the goal “90 deals in 90 days”.
Trump’s self -imposed deadline follows his address to reciprocal tariffs in April, causing global panic and causing S&P to shed $ 5 trillion worth about two days. As the deadline of next week is approaching, the Trump administration has announced new trade agreements with countries, including China, Britain, Vietnam and Indonesia – but details of these deals are scarce, and no word on further deals has not yet left consumers and investors with little clarity.
Investors are used to “Taco“Or Trump always trafficking chickens, where markets fall when Trump announces steep tariffs for imports and then jumps back when he pauses. But experts say this scheme cannot last forever.
“Time is to establish deals,” Vedbush’s senior analyst, Dan IVS, said Wealth. “Although the market has reduced it, for business activities that work every day, there are huge unknown and very white knees. It’s a crucial week and crucial a few months before (for) tariffs.”
Economists already expect current prices for tariffs Increase costs Consumer goods this summer – these prices can rise further after July 9th. Economists in Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note on Thursday wrote that there is a “immediate risk” for a temporary jump in tariff rates across the board, as the deadline is approaching. If imposed, reciprocal rates can raise consumer prices from tariffs to 1.5% from 1% according to current tariff rates, they wrote.
But experts are skeptical that Trump will maintain any reciprocal rates imposed next week, as he has declined rates in the past, as talks with trading partners continued. Trump and China formalized a rare country agreement in June after Trump Briefly filled 125% duties of Chinese import in April.
“In the end, however, we expect any tariffs to be short -lived. Other countries will respond strongly; they all saw Mr. Trump prone to pressure from China in May,” Economists in Pantheon wrote. “The weaker economic background compared to April and the further decline in the ratings of the president’s approval since then also points to possible climbing.”
Some experts even expect little changes as the deadline is approaching, as current pills with large trading partners still need to be refined.
“So far we have a small number of contracts that are not very detailed ourselves,” said UBS chief economist Paul Donovan Wealth In E -Sto Thursday. The “Chinese” deal “is simply partial de -escalation of an unsustainable agreement. The UK agreement is partially implemented with a lot of disagreement for the outstanding details. The deadline is likely to serve as a point from which further extensions or continuation of negotiations will be announced. ”
Trump’s credibility in question
Markets are used to Trump to return to extreme tariff threats. Now, experts say Trump’s next moves will inform whether countries in negotiations with the United States have a similar mentality.
“(Trump) certainly does not want to be accused of chicken because it will harm his credibility in any future negotiations,” Tiri Wisman, Economist for McKquari Group Financial Markets, the Economist for Financial Markets, the Economist of Finance Wealth. “The focus is always to show that it can actually cut you off.”
Wizman expects some deals to be announced, which he says will be declared the administration.
“Trump can always come out and say,” We have an agreement “, but that will be a deal that is very narrow in volume. So, they will split the things they have agreed and will say it’s a deal like China, “Wisman said.” There are a bunch of ways that can go right, and it’s also a whole bunch of ways to turn. ”
Experts say they expect continuous talks on July 9 with very large trading partners like the EU.
“The deadline is unlikely to change much – mostly the status quo will be maintained while negotiations continue with more or less vigorous depending on the importance of bilateral relationship,” Donovan wrote to UBS, “The uncertainty about the ultimate outcome will exist.
Trade with China
China accounts for about 37.6% of US imports this year, according to the Supply Chain Intelligence Project44. This is an increase of 0.1% from 2024.
However, Wisman says that any trade agreements that come in the near future may seem to lock China from relocating capital to and out of the supply chains of other countries. He says this could be a focus on trade agreements with countries such as Japan, South Korea and the EU.
“If you can get these countries to depend on bilateral US trade and depend less than China, then you basically insert these countries permanently into American orbit,” Wisman said.
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