Sir Kir Starmer will call senior ministers on Thursday to investigate the global trade chaos that began the so -called tariffs on Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” as he breathed a sigh of relief that the UK was spared.
Starmer’s allies claim that the prime minister’s “calm” diplomacy with Trump was “justified” by the fact that Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on the UK, compared to the 20 percent rate of the EU.
The rate Trump put on the UK, which has a balanced trade in goods with the United States, was a minimum that he collected to trading partners in America. The likes of Australia, Brazil, Turkey and Singapore also got the lowest rate.
Starmer hopes to sign a trade agreement with Trump to further decrease the 10 percent rate. But British authorities admit that Trump has set the powerful economic and political forces that can be difficult to contain. “We are waiting for the administration to return to the earth,” one said.
Ono Vale de Almeida, a former EU ambassador to the UK, said one of Trump’s goals is to sow a division between the UK and the rest of Europe and warned of the danger it could succeed.
“The more concessions made by the UK to the Americans, the harder the EU is to live with it,” he told the Financial Times. “The more you go to the American side, the more distance you create with us.”
Starmer said he would not impose retaliatory tariffs on the “knee” of the United States, although the likes of Canada and the EU responded to the previous rounds of the previous rounds of Trump’s tariffs. Anti-Trump Liberal Democrats want Starmer to form a “united front” with Ottawa and Brussels.
Valle de Almeida said he was convinced that Trump would eventually reduce the UK an even better deal for EU tariffs, which he said could create tension if it caused trade and investment.
Sam Lowe, leading trade policy in consulting services Flint Global, said one area of possible tension – and potentially economic boost for the UK – would be if companies moved to UK production to use better US trading conditions.
However, he warned that Trump’s uncertainty reduced the prospect of such relocation. “If there is a differential that is useful for the UK, the question will be asked by investors is” How long does that last? “” He said.
Lowe added that the rules needed to be produced sufficiently in the UK in order to benefit from the US lower tariff should, in theory, prevent EU exporters simply delivering their finished products to the United States through the UK.
Any benefits from London from companies that move to production are likely to be exceeded by the hit of £ 60 billion from the UK’s existing export to the United States, and the economic traction of already stagnant GDP growth in the UK from a global trade war-fiscal plans.
Trading experts do not expect Britain-to differ from EU-impose tariffs on Anti-Depony of surplus products that can flood world markets from China, Europe and other major production areas as a result of US tariffs that are diverting goods from the US market.
“Would you take measures against dumping? I doubt you would like,” said Greg Hands, a former minister of conservative trade. The UK economy relies less on the production of domestic products than on consumption and services.
But Hands said Starmer could face other problems arising from Trump tariffs that could complicate his efforts to “reset” relations with Brussels ahead of the UK/EU summit in May.
He said he could imagine a situation where US goods were cheaper in the UK than in the EU for countermeasures imposed by Trump from Brussels. European consumers can head to London to buy US goods. Irish consumers can make a similar journey with Belfast.
“This may be good for the UK, but it can lead to tension,” he said, adding that French authorities may feel forced to set more customs checks for travelers returning from the UK.
“It could be seen how a certain galler narrative could appear in connection with” Perfidal Albion “to reduce his own deal with Trump,” Hands said.
Starmer will begin to feel the political warmth if his “cold” response to Trump’s tariffs-especially his refusal to impose retaliatory measures-does not succeed in making fast new concessions from the US president.
Trading experts said the UK government’s decision not to announce revenge against Trump’s tariffs made the UK a distance. China, the EU and Canada have reacted to Trump’s tariffs so far.
Creon Butler, head of global economy in Think-Tank Chatham House, said that although the UK had a severe balance to appear as a small nation-dependent nation for its security, Starmer’s residence risked inviting demands for further concessions from Washington.
“A large number of countries – the EU, China, Canada – announced revenge, but then delayed the imposition. So there is a way to do so and not to impose the measures. The question, if you do not retaliate, is” where the demands stop? “He said.
Butler added that Britain’s offer to dilute digital services imposed on US tech giants is also political risks for the Starmer administration, which at the same time imposes a reduction in the well -being of the sick and disabled.
Michael Gasorek, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University, said that every Starmer’s revenge decision must be measured against any economic effect on the UK -imposed tariffs that will be negative – and probably has little effect.
“The UK has no significant economic support when it comes to trade in goods with the United States, so I think it is unlikely that revenge in the UK will alter the US position,” he said.
The “nuclear option” of the threat of retaliation in financial services, where the UK has a surplus with the United States and can therefore potentially have an impact, also risked leading to a painful counter-recount as 27 % of UK exports in the United States.
“Given the vaginas and switches in US politics, it seems reasonable for me to” stay calm “and see if the deal can be negotiated,” Gasorek said.
Source link
