Pyramid for sugar cube from artefacts through the east
October Nyujork World Sugar #11 (SBV25) Tuesday closed -0.50 (-3.09%), and August London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWQ25) Close -10.20 (-2.16%).
Sugar prices on Tuesday sold out sharply, with Nyujork October sugar falling on a low low deal, and London’s sugar dropped to a low 1-1/2 week. Signs of poor demand in terms of expectations for greater sugar reserves are measured by prices. 45.111 MT of Sugarujork Sugar was delivered to resolve the July contract for Monday, the smallest amount delivered for a July contract for 11 years, a sign of poor demand. On Monday, the closest plants (SBN25) NY Sugar released a low level of 4-1/4 years.
Expectations for larger sugar reserves limit it upside down in sugar prices. On Monday, Tsarnikov’s merchant trader predicted a 7.5 mm sugar for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus for 8 years.
Sugar prices have dropped over the past three months as a result of expectations for a global sugar surplus. On May 22, USAA, in its two -year report, predicted that global sugar production 2025/26 would increase by +4.7% annually to a record 189,318 million metric tons (MMT), with global sugar supplies at 41,188 mm, by 7.5% of the year.
The prospect of greater sugar production in India, the world’s second -largest producer, is a priced bear. On June 2, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India predicted that the production of sugar in India 2025/26 would rise to +19% Y/Y to 35 mmt, citing a larger planting arena. The prospect of an abundance of rainfall in India can lead to bumper sugar culture, which is a bearish for pricing. On April 15, the Earth’s Indian Ministry of Sciences envisioned over-normal monsoon this year, with the total forecast for rainfall being 105% of the long-term average. The India season in the monsoon runs from June to September.
Signs of greater global sugar production are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA foreign agricultural service (FAS) predicted that the production of sugar in Brazil 2025/26 would increase +2.3% Y/Y to a record 44.7 mmt. Also, the production of sugar in India 2025/26 is projected to grow +25% Y/Y to 35.3 mmt, citing favorable monsoon rains and the increased sugar surface. In addition, the production of sugar in Thailand 2025/26 is expected to rise +2% y/y to 10.3 mmt.
In a bearing factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 mmt sugar this season, facilitating the restrictions on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports of October 2023 to maintain appropriate domestic materials. India has allowed Mills to export only 6.1 mmt sugar during the 2022/23 to 30 September season, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 mmt in the previous season. However, ISMA projects that the production of sugar in India 2024/25 will drop -17.5% Y/Y to 5 -year low of 26.2 mmt. Also, Isma announced last Monday that the production of sugar in India from October 1st -15th is 25.74 mmt, which is a decrease -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary of Chopra said on May 1 that Sugar exports to India 2024/25 could have a total of 800,000 MT, below previous expectations of 1 mmt.
The prospects for greater sugar production in Thailand are swords for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand’s cabinet announced that the production of sugar in Thailand increased +14% Y/Y to 10.00 mmt. Thailand is the third -largest sugar producer in the world and the second largest sugar exporter.
Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. The union announced on Monday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center -South Sugar Exit by mid -June decreased by -14.6% Y/Y to 9,404 mmt. Last month, Konab, a Brazilian government’s anticipation agency, said 2024/25 Brazil Sugar production fell by -3.4% Y/Y to 44.118 mmt, citing lower sugar cane yields as a result of drought and excessive heat.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has increased its forecast for global sugar deficit 2024/25 to 9 -year -old height of -5.47 mmt on May 15, for a forecast in February from -4.88 mmt. This indicates a market tightening after the global excess sugar of 2023/24 of 1.31 mmt. ISO also reduced its forecast for sugar production 2024/25 to 174.8 mmt from February 175.5 mmt.
USAA, in its two -year report released on May 22, predicts that global sugar production 2025/26 will rise to +4.7% Y/Y to a record 189,318 mmt and that global consumption of human sugar 2025/26 will increase +1.4% Y/Y to Record 177.921 mm. USA also predicted that 2025/26 global sugar stocks would climb +7.5% Y/Y to 41,188 mmt.
On the day of publication, Rich Asplund had no (direct or indirect) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
