US CEOs feel a little more confident when they enter the second half of 2025 – but not optimistic enough to increase their calculation because they care about the heads of President Trump’s tariff plans.
The Board of the Conference announced its US CEO Report of Confidence For the third quarter on Thursday, revealing that CEOs withdrew from the top level of uncertainty they had experienced in Q2.
For example, last quarter 71% of CEOs were Preparation for a recession With an additional 12% that expect a deep economic change by overflowing the rest of the planet. P3, in comparison, is a positive pink in its appearance: only 33% now believe that there will be a recession and only 3% believe that it will have a global impact on the rest of the planet.
This ingenuity is not necessarily echoed by economists. This week Moody’s main economies, Mark Zandi, said that the Bombs report on the Bureau of Labor Statistics – among other data – made him realize that America was “in the recession”.
While leaders on the ground may disagree, they show why 2025 is likely to be a year of cost efficiency, as bosses are increasingly tightening their belts when it comes to payroll.
Conference Board found 34% of CEOs Expected net reduction in their workforce Over the next 12 months, from 28% in Q2 – either by cutting jobs or not replacing leaving roles.
Indeed, the participation of CEOs planning to expand their labor force has also dropped to 27% from 28%, and 39% of CEOs said they plan to maintain the size of their workforce, which is 44% in Q2.
“The participation of CEOs who expect a certain reduction in the size of their labor force over the next 12 months has increased for the fifth consecutive quarter,” Roger W. said. Ferguson Runior, Vice President of the Business Council and President of Emirit at the Conference Board. “For the first time since 2020, CEOs planning to reduce the workforce have surpassed the share that requires expanding, though the plurality continued to predict a slight change (39%, a 44%reduction).”
Workers leaving, or discharged, may face harder time to return to the labor market. Some of the softness in a recent Bls report was written by McCwari economists in North America in the client’s note this week, they do not come from layoffs, but from people who cannot divert the market.
David Doyle and Finara Aziziza noted that the initial unemployment claims remained low, suggesting that layoffs are not spreading, but continuous claims are increasing higher, pointing to those who have been fired, find it harder to follow the roles.
Indeed, the duo added data to create jobs and labor -turning survey (Jolts) that the number of unemployed appears to be increasing the strictest in labor participants and re -learning, indicating that those with less specific career history will find it difficult to get a foot on the scale.
“More importantly, the economic consequences that come from job loss (and income loss) are far more substantial than the unused growth coming from a new workforce participant who failed to find a job,” they said.
Cost management
Companies face increased cost heads due to White House tariff regime, as global supply chains are becoming more invested.
The vast majority of business leaders – 93% – think they will require cost efficiency by deploying AI or automation to reduce the main heads. And 64% said they would share that rise in consumer prices, and another 16% said they were still thinking.
This is a major part of the track than it is stated by previous research. For example, Report Newujork Fed In June, 45% of service firms intended to pass the overall increase in their increased tariffs.
“CEO’s trust recovered in the third quarter after collapsing in Q2, but failed to signal the return of optimism,” said Stephanie Gichard, an older economist for global conference indicators. “Improvement is a continuation of the trend seen in tariff disputes between the United States and China has become less intense and potentially reflects current progress in trade negotiations.
“The views of CEOs on current economic conditions have made it the sharpest recovery. Their six -month expectations for the economy as a whole and in their industries are better.” P2. ”
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