- President Trump has broken the break button on some of his tariffs Before the big banks they took care of the head with analysts about their leadership leadership on Friday. The announcement of the President of Social Media had an urgent impact on markets, with Nasdak Finishing the day at 12%, while the S&P 500 increased by more than 9%. Individual actions have climbed: Delta air lines raised 23%, Nvidia increased by more than 18%, and AppleMore than $ 770 billion in value, after concerns about the retail price of the iPhone, closed the day by 15%.
Stock markets broke out with a torrential rush of optimism after President Donald Trump’s publication of the truth social Pause Some of his tariffs and reviews by Finance Secretary Scott Bilen assures the world that the United States has not been involved in a trade war.
Despite the short deprivation of the massacre of the week, however, a A cooling uncertainty are onoms over the next 90 days.
“Every portfolio manager is trying to disclose whether you can draw a straight line for future negotiations,” said Akeejk Furmeier, a portfolio manager at Harbor Capital and a former member of the New York Federal Reserve Group. “We get another 90 days before making this song again and dancing.”
To catch a set: President Trump announced tariffs on tariffs During Rose Garden’s address last week, which was a telegraph from his campaign. Investors had a price in tariffs and a subsequent impact on trade policy, but the volume of tariffs was greater than expected. Markets fell in the trading days after Trump’s announcement. The word “recession” – typically avoided at any cost – refers to the point of conversation and the chances of the United States stumbling into one roseAccording to JPMorgan chaseWhose CEO Jameimi Dimon Posted publicly That the recession was “probably an outcome” after the tariff storm. Trump said Dimon’s comments are included in his decision To issue a partial break on Wednesday.
After Trump’s announcement, markets organized a rally for gravity, with Nasdak finishing the day 12%, while the S&P 500 increased by more than 9%.
Said Michael Orlando, CEO at the PE Morgan’s Center for Goods and Energy Management at the University of Colorado Denver, Wealth The tariff break is a relief, mostly from uncertainty, which continues to weigh the prices of capital. But Greater developmentWhat appeared over the weekend was that the US Finance Ministry “stopped looking like a safe port in times of uncertainty and began to look like a risky bet,” Orlando said.
“I think this” cooling “tariff has done a lot to dissolve the concern that the president may not understand the idea of trade winnings,” Orlando added.
But the question remains: what happens next?
“Limited air cover”
First, it takes into account whether the damage from the tariffs will last, along with the costs of widespread economic uncertainty, said Furmeer. All planning around capital expenditures and major strategic moves have just dropped the window because there is no certainty, he said.
The portfolio manager said there would be critical signs to be sought during calls for earnings between larger companies and analysts this week, especially about how CEOs and FFs plan to deal with tariff issues – and anything else that could cause disorders.
“This provides enough air cover to miss bad news,” Furmeer said. “Every bad news you have, remove this quarter.”
Money managers will also see to see how many bank leaders, such as Dimon, talk about how their clients react, M&A’s activity perspective and guidelines for their willingness to secure credit, Hurmeier added. Now, it is too early to talk about potential loan losses, but other topics will be indicative of whether there is a stronger business feeling.
“Whatever they say, it will be quite instructive,” Furmeer said.
China: From 104% to 125%
The other biggest question is China.
The next few weeks are likely to diminish the impact of possible further revenge, after China has pledged to “fight to end” even before Trump raises the country’s 125%tariffs. Trump resisted without breaking tariffs in China, and instead He was walking them Due to China’s “lack of respect”, the president of the social media wrote.
Idana Apio, manager of the Portfolio of “First Eagle Investment” and former deputy head of the Global Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Federal Reserve of New York, said the situation with China is extremely serious, from the level of tariff to the potential for a broken trade between the two.
It is unclear whether Trump’s latest move will make China negotiate tariffs or whether economic tensions will reach such a level that China is becoming more specific in the geopolitical sphere, Apio said.
“Given the sharp escalation and economic friction between the United States and China, which is obviously not good for the global economy, is it spilling over the geopolitical side?” She said. “If they think they have nothing else to lose … Does China start to enter other domains? I hope the answer is,” no “.
Economic Look: “Very Hard”
Out What can happen to China, the US economy remains in a “very tight place,” Apio said.
She put a recession in her forecast, but Apio said she was not sure if she removed it at this stage, as uncertainty was imposed, even if the tariffs were not as big as those originally released last week. Plus, there is still room for further tariff acting and some uncertainties are really eliminated at this stage.
“One fear I have is that we repeat this whole exercise for 90 days,” Apio said. “It was roller driving, to say at least.”
This story was originally shown on Fortune.com
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