Is the drug market of obesity still duopolar?

Competition in the obesity drug market is intended to be strengthened, with 23 new obesity treatments, which are expected to obtain approval in larger markets by 2031. This influx of therapies could be caused by Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk and American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lily, who have long dominated the space with their GLP-1 receptor agents that regulate the level of appetite and blood sugar. Vaggie (Semaglutid) of Novo Nordisk (Semaglutid) and Eli Lily (Tiresatide) are currently running the market, driving a strong growth in sales.

Now, smaller biotechnical companies and established pharmaceutical companies are developing alternative mechanisms, longer formulations and oral drugs to expand access to the patient. “The obesity pipeline is growing, and many new therapies are expected to reach the market in the next decade,” said Costanza Alsati, a Globalda farm analyst, a data analytics and consulting firm. “This will offer more options for the treatment of patients, provided that the problems with the approach are resolved.”

Obesity rates continue to rise globally, with Globaldata predicting 0.7% annual increase in prevalence in seven main markets by 2031. While lifestyle interventions remain the first line of defense, pharmacotherapy is increasingly prescribed along with diet and exercise. As a result, sales of obesity can be increased from $ 37.2 billion in 2023 to $ 173.5 billion by 2031.

New Nordisk and Eli Lily are currently controlling 99% of the market, but their dominance may weaken as new participants are introducing alternative therapies. Globaldata projects their combined market share can be reduced to 78% by 2030, with over 300 GLP-1 receptor agonists in development. Vegi is available in the United States, Denmark, Norway, Germany and the UK, launching in Japan and other European markets expected in 2024. Zepbund, which received US approval in November 2023, is intended for wider global expansion this year, with expected approvals in Europe, Canada and parts of Asia.

“NEW Nordisk has been researching obesity treatments for 25 years. Today, only two new Nordisk companies and Eli Lily have a market thickness products, but more companies will enter the space. This happened earlier on the diabetes market, where we sometimes had many competitors and, at other times, less. After all, it comes down to innovation, “said Camila Silvest, Vice President, Commercial Strategy and Corporate Works in New Nordisk.

“Despite efforts to produce production, demand still exceeds the offer. Looking forward, we expect the market to develop in different segments: high efficiency treatments for significant weight loss, oral therapies focused on convenience and prices sensitive options for broader accessibility. Our goal is to compete through all these segments with a strong portfolio of obesity, “she added.

US biotech company Viking Therapetics develops VK-2735, dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist in phase II tests. If approved, it could become the first oral drugs for GLP-1 obesity by 2028, with a projected sale of $ 2 billion by 2030. Similarly, Altimmune promotes pemwiditide, now in phase II obesity and metabolic dysfunction associated with steatohepatitis (Mash). Expectedly to start in 2027, it can generate sales of $ 1.2 billion by 2030. The US-China Biotech Company Structure Therapeutics operates on GSBR-1290, an oral candidate for GLP-1 targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes, which is expected to hit the market by 2028 with $ 1.2 billion in projected revenue.

“These smaller players may not have the same scale as Nordisk and Eli Lily, but their approaches to the treatment of weight loss can be established as significant competitors over the next decade,” said ASPER Morley, an analyst at a farm in the Globalda.

The US pharmaceutical company is also developing Maridebart Cafraglute, which showed up to 20% weight loss in clinical trials. Unlike weekly GLP-1 injections, maritide can be administered monthly, improving adherence.

Survodutide on Boehringer Ingelheim (glucagon/GLP-1) appears as another strong candidate. According to IQVIA Healthcare, it is the “first serious competitor” out of a new Nordisk-Lili duopolist. Furthermore, the Indian pharmaceutical company Mankinda Farm is conducting an oral cure for targeting GPR119 for obesity. “We have seen encouraging results from Phase I and recently started Stage II trials in Australia,” said Arjun Hunja, humanity farm Coo.