Since global markets are turning inward and politics begins to copy economic rules, India’s growth in India’s growth may face stronger resistance than expected. Estimation expert Aswat Damodaran warns that the global environment of India for entry is far less forgiven than the one that once moved China.
“India will face much greater hostility than the rest of the world because he has been trying to grow than China has done in the last few decades,” he writes in his last post on the blog, investing politics: a reaction to globalization and government disruption.
While China has become large enough to maintain growth through its domestic market, Damodaran suggests that aspirations in India take place at a time when globalization is no longer ascending. “Globalization … Now, in my opinion, it is crazy and faces a return,” he writes.
He monitors the change in the 2008 financial crisis, which he says has destroyed public confidence in global institutions and systems led by experts. That erosion, he argues, paved the way for political twists – Brexit, the rise of nationalist parties in Europe and Donald Trump’s presidency.
In Trump’s second act, Damodaran sees a more unlimited approach. “He had tariffs as a weapon and is open to his contempt for global organizations,” he notes. While economists are caring for long -term damage, Damodaran says much of the public is “Trump’s cheering”.
Damodaran, known for his insight into the assessment, is also falling apart and who has lost and lost the era of globalization. Among the winners: China, which now accounts for almost 38% of global GDP growth (2010–2023); Consumers, with more elections at lower costs; and financial markets, which have become crucial to public policy. Also in the winner’s circle: global institutions, multinational corporations and experts who shaped the discourse of forums like Davos.
But there were clear losers. Japan and Europe have lost economic ground. Small businesses and workers with blue collars in developed economies carried the burden of competition and offshore. “Production jobs reached about 20 million in 1979 and fell to about 13 million in 2024,” he writes about experience in the United States. He also states a broader democratic erosion, where voters, even when they decide to change, saw politics dictated by a “global scenario”.
For Damodaran, these shifts are not abstract – they directly affect the company’s assessment. “To appreciate companies today, I have no choice but to bring the economy and politics of the world where these companies live,” he writes.
A company under that lens is Tesla. In 2024, he appreciated the stock at $ 182 and bought $ 170. But last year he changed his narrative. Tesla is now facing a real rival in the Chinese BYD, hybrids make a comeback, and the polarization policy of CEO Elon Musk affects the perception. “My estimation of Tesla’s value is about $ 150 per share, about $ 30 less than my value last year and about $ 70 below its stock price,” he notes.
