Wall Street teaches what was already known to people moving to Florida just to end up hate humidity and big mistakes: the grass is Always green on the other side.
Case in point: Analysts in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America this week became the latest to raise their target forecasts at the end of the year for the S&P 500. They consider it a sign that the great rotation of US capital earlier this year, under a trade war, could be too large.
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While the so-called trade with Taco may be the hottest Wall Street acronym and in financial publications this year, much more shown-and something related to the retailers of the traders returned to fashion, also: Tina. It is “there is no alternative (for us capital)” for the uninitiated. Trade with Tina, however, has hit some snacks in recent years, with bonds as a pretty swelling alternative in the era of high interest rates. But this year’s trade war has made it the bond market a little quiltto borrow a phrase. Meanwhile, the conversation about the end of American exceptions, which is confirmed by a turnaround to Europe and elsewhere, may be a little too excessive. As the trade war is boiling, the monthly trade value of S&P 500 in June ($ 2.3 trillion) more than triple than that of the Stox Europe Index 600 ($ 600 billion), according to Recent analysis of BloombergBecause the index climbed to a record high.
Last month, Goldman Sachs’ US capital, David Kostin, even declared that “Tina’s trade remains alive and well”-retired and retail accounts, as US households dipped in a record 49%. The upgraded look at the end of the year of the bank, released late on Monday and followed by a similar audit in the Bofa next day, adds a chorus with more optimistic votes:
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Bofa increased its forecast from 5,600 to 6,300, while Goldman’s goal increased from 6.100 to 6,600; Citigroup, Barclays and Deutsche Bank raised their views in June. Most of the largest brokers reduced their projections at the end of the year to below 6,000 after the April rolling military wheels.
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In his note, Goldman cited recent data on inflation and corporate research that showed fewer tariff crossings than expected, as well as the likelihood of lowering interest rates.
Made of pure concentrate: Market rally in June and the return of Tina’s trade, not all of Kumbaya in practice – it is possible that the enthusiasm can now work a little hot. At least that is the thesis of A recent study by analysts The Bloomberg intelligent, which revealed that only 10% of the S&P 500 stocks powered the return index from their April falls, well from the average from 22% from 2010 to 2024. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 weight index has not reached a record high since November. Analysts in Oppenheimer & Co. Register similar problems, recently telling Bloomberg: “Wider participation is important. The rallies with most of the participating actions, large and small, are the rallies that usually continue.”
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