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Your guide to what the US election means in 2024 for Washington and the world
We need to believe in Donald Trump’s instincts, says Mike Nsonson, head of the House of Representatives. Alternatively, Nsonson and his caucus should run screaming in the opposite direction. It’s too late for Republicans to return to a normal party – Trump’s belief is their principle of organizing. But they could play the loyalist by spoiling Trump from the shelf. In addition to its jobs, the future of the global economy and every American retirement fund depends on it.
Their task is complicated by the fact that Trump still thinks he is the winner. Try to stand in your shoes. From his Obama Foreign Affairs Plot in 2011 until his conviction in 2024 as a crime, and so many points between, Trump is almost dead annually. But his Phoenix continues to grow. Trump is a fantasist whose deepest fantasy-that he is an unstoppable champion-is being fulfilled. Why would a little market turmoil prevent it?
The starting point is that Trump is a hammer, and the rest of the world, as well as half of America, is nails. Sometimes the hammer can focus on the selected nails or soften his shot, but he is always a hammer. That some of Trump’s closest supporters, such as New York fund manager, was Akman, surprised by his global tariff war, is a mystery. Trump has promised almost every campaign speech to free the trade war in which we are now.
He accuses foreigners of spoiling America since the mid-1980s. Note, his obsession was with Japan, not with the Soviet Union. Trump has always been the worst with allies and friends. His deepest contempt is now reserved for Europe and Canada. Psychologists extrapolated from Trump’s real estate neighborhood tried to impose his brothers and sisters. If your instinct is to dismiss people, including those closest to you, assume that this is the method of all.
The mystery is why so many of Akman’s colleagues to Venezuelans based in Florida-have bent back to miss who Trump is. Trillion comments were spent accusing the wrong people of Trump’s Derrant Syndrome. The real TD affects those who are constantly watching a rational actor or economic game in chess, where it does not exist. The whole market probably suffers from this syndrome. Shortly after he went down Monday morning, a false news statement said Trump said he would publish a break on his tariffs this week. Markets have more than deleting their losses in the opening. All those winnings, however, were deleted when the White House issued a denial.
If the online meme can turn the bear market into a one -minute bull recovery, and return, Trump has the world in the palm. The most difficult rumor that it can be healthy can cause anger. The Roman emperors would envy a man’s fingers. However, at some point, maybe directly, Trump could be forced to pause at least some of his duties on “Liberation Day”. It will cause a big rally for relief. But his break will not be safer than a stray tree. The same may apply to his threats of a new 50 percent tariff escalation for China.
Markets will cheer all hints of bilateral deals Trump plans to hit with more influential applicants – Japan, China and India should be carefully monitored. Investors should also be careful about the fact that such deals will be affected among foreign governments and Trump personally, not his administration. US Finance, Trade and Trade Representatives are often out of the loop. Given the lack of the limit between Trump’s public role and private investment, the volume of non-trade-related exchange is excellent.
The idea that Trump’s influence will be limited to the trading economy is also desirable. Foreigners have a critical stake in the US Finance Debt. The prolonged high demand for a means of which the world is losing confidence is the difference between Trump’s recession and Trump’s depression. At this, Europe’s governments seem to have better instincts than capital markets and fixed income. Instead of escalating the trade war, the EU relies only on a modest tool of revenge. This is not because Brussels thinks Trump is likely to accept a combination. This is because it fears that the Tit-for-to-foot spiral will demolish the global financial system.
In any case, this teaching point is unnecessarily overdue. Trump’s green smells have reduced their credibility. There is no school for realism of foreign policy or trade mercantilism, which may explain Trump’s actions. If you want to predict the world, study his psychology. While Trump is competent, stay short in America.
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