Summary
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the PCE price index, will release Bea this morning. The index differs from the more famous consumer pricing index because its composition changes more often and faster to reflect real -time pricing. In the January report, PCE inflation increased by 2.5% of one year. The latest CPI report (February) increased by 2.8%. The Core PCE, which removes unstable food and energy prices, has increased at a rate of 2.6% in the last month. Our PCE forecasts call for stable-duty readings for February: 2.4% for the title number and 2.6% for basic reading, as inflation remains in certain services at sticky prices. Overall, inflation in this cycle reached the peak in the summer of 2022 and has since been quite consistent down. We follow 20 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they suggest that prices rise at 3.15% rate of one year, essentially flat with a month ago. The figures are unstable and distorted with changes within the report on inflation of the manufacturer’s manufacturer’s prices. Focusing on the basic inflation-we get it with an average core CPI, PCE-based Ex-Food & Energy, five-year-old inflation rate, 10-year interest rate of 10-year advice and basic PCE-pricing index is 2,60%, lower by five
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